Analytical Tools:
Lead-Lag Overlay

In order to ascertain whether a series in the IEA chartbook leads or lags a fundamental aspect of the economy (Operating Rate, Growth Rate, Money Growth, or certain prices), IEA provided a transparent overlay which could be laid on the chart of the series in question, vertically lined up with the normal line of the series, and then shifted left or right until the fluctuations with respect to the norm line matched as closely as possible. The lead or lag could then be read from the overlay.

Here is a scanned image of the overlay. A PDF version is also available which comes as close as possible to duplicating the size of the original.

Written: 1976
Posted: February 12, 2009
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