Monetary Forecast
Table

Data for "Monetary Forecasting" Experiment
(% changes, annual rate, except Column 7)

    (1)  (2)  (3)  (4)  (5)  (6)  (7)
    Money Stock Trend Decline Actual Final Sales Predicted Prediction M/FS Ratio
    (M1) of M/FS Final Sales with SSA Final Sales Error with SSA
        (+ SSF)   (cols 1+2) (cols 5-3)  

6917.03.17.86.210.12.322.43
24.20.56.46.94.7-1.722.24
32.21.87.57.44.0-3.521.97
42.30.75.36.63.1-2.321.79
7013.72.76.34.36.40.121.75
25.2-0.54.55.34.70.221.71
35.20.86.16.16.0-0.121.65
45.31.02.84.16.33.521.78
7117.12.913.911.410.1-3.821.56
210.5-0.88.09.29.61.621.58
36.82.48.38.29.30.921.48
42.63.07.89.15.7-2.121.24
7217.44.813.310.812.2-1.221.06
28.30.98.910.29.20.220.93
38.72.28.28.010.82.720.92
49.23.414.115.412.6-1.520.73
7317.64.615.713.612.2-3.520.45
26.50.96.47.47.41.020.36
35.62.09.59.27.6-1.820.14
45.23.97.68.59.11.520.08
7416.24.310.69.310.5-0.119.96
25.42.48.08.67.8-0.219.74
34.33.411.411.07.7-3.719.38
44.45.74.44.910.05.719.45
7510.75.38.37.96.0-2.319.16
27.12.512.512.79.6-2.918.84
37.33.510.510.010.80.318.66
42.55.711.211.68.2-3.018.36
7612.95.07.47.77.90.418.20
28.52.69.69.611.01.418.08
34.43.58.88.28.0-0.917.86
47.05.912.012.312.80.917.73
7714.84.79.29.99.50.317.57

Column Notes

Col. 1   Data are Federal Reserve daily average series, average of the three monthly averages in the quarter.
Col. 2 (SSF) The seasonal factors from the supplemental seasonal adjustment of the ratio are added to the trend values (see Figure 4, Panel B) so that the sum will correspond more closely to published final sales data which have a residual seasonal factor (see Figure 4, Panels B & C).
Cols. 3,4 Although these growth rates were computed from IEA's Adjusted Final Sales, which includes a normal rate of inventory investment, they are virtually identical to the growth rates of published final sales data.
Cols. 4,7 (SSA) supplementally seasonally adjusted by IEA, using a version of the Census X-11 program.
Note: All data precede the 1977 annual July NIPA revisions, and before the money supply revisions of 6-23-77.


Posted: May 19, 2009
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